DALQEN Daily Market Brief — October 2, 2026

Executive Summary

Current market environment.

The overall cross-domain assessment is mixed. Within that broader picture, the observed market state is supportive, while venue liquidity evidence is mixed.

Major-asset movement is positive across the observed 24-hour window. Supporting evidence spans Market State, Liquidity, and On-chain. Evidence disagreement remains in Liquidity and Derivatives.

Current daily capital-flow coverage and several derivatives datasets remain unavailable. The evidence does not establish verified exchange flows, institutional allocation, or a comprehensive derivatives condition. Confidence is moderate and describes evidence quality, not future outcomes.

Major-asset movement is positive across the observed 24-hour window.

Major assets / 24hCURRENT

BTC +3.48% · ETH +1.93% · SOL +3.99%price change

CoinGeckoOct 2, 12:38 PM UTC

Market breadthCURRENT

82%eligible assets above zero over 24h

CoinGeckoOct 2, 12:36 PM UTC

50 eligible assets

Realized volatilityCURRENT

BTC 35.65% · ETH 35.41% · SOL 58.2%annualized, 24-hour realized window

DALQEN derivedOct 2, 12:30 PM UTC

BTC / ETH / SOL · baseline maturity remains explicit

Global market contextCURRENT

BTC dominance: 58.85% · Global market cap: $2.97T · 24h market volume: $111.62B

CoinGeckoOct 2, 12:33 PM UTC

Coinbase BTC, ETH, and SOL venue observations currently read as mixed.

BTC venue liquidityCURRENT

0.001 bps$312,133 observed depth

Coinbase ExchangeOct 2, 12:40 PM UTC

ETH venue liquidityCURRENT

0.981 bps$164,956 observed depth

Coinbase ExchangeOct 2, 12:40 PM UTC

SOL venue liquidityCURRENT

0.819 bps$1.01M observed depth

Coinbase ExchangeOct 2, 12:40 PM UTC

Official rates, inflation, and labor evidence are shown on their source publication cadence without a policy forecast.

Fed FundsCURRENT

3.88%official rate

FREDSep 30, 12:00 AM UTC

Reference date: 2026-09-30 · Collected: 2026-10-02T00:11:09.030Z · Recorded: 2026-10-02T00:11:09.278Z · Release time / expected next release: not recorded; official business-day cadence

Treasury ratesCURRENT

2Y 4.88% · 10Y 5.29%official rates

FREDSep 30, 12:00 AM UTC

2-year Treasury: Reference date: 2026-09-30 · Collected: 2026-10-02T00:11:09.753Z · Recorded: 2026-10-02T00:11:09.800Z · Release time / expected next release: not recorded; official business-day cadence · 10-year Treasury: Reference date: 2026-09-30 · Collected: 2026-10-02T00:11:09.576Z · Recorded: 2026-10-02T00:11:09.628Z · Release time / expected next release: not recorded; official business-day cadence

CPICURRENT

334.13index (1982–84 = 100)

BLSAug 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Reference period: 2026-08-01 · Collected: 2026-09-20T21:51:58.677Z · Recorded: 2026-09-20T21:51:58.979Z · Release date: 2026-09-11T12:30:00Z · Expected next release: 2026-10-14T12:30:00Z · Latest official release

LaborSTALE

Unemployment 4.1% · Payrolls 159.1Mofficial labor measures

BLSAug 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Unemployment: Reference period: 2026-08-01 · Collected: 2026-09-20T21:51:58.677Z · Recorded: 2026-09-20T21:51:58.979Z · Release date: 2026-09-04T12:30:00Z · Expected next release: 2026-10-02T12:30:00Z · Newer official release expected · Nonfarm payrolls: Reference period: 2026-08-01 · Collected: 2026-09-20T21:51:58.677Z · Recorded: 2026-09-20T21:51:58.979Z · Release date: 2026-09-04T12:30:00Z · Expected next release: 2026-10-02T12:30:00Z · Newer official release expected

Approved Ethereum and stablecoin observations provide network context without assigning wallet intent.

Finalized Ethereum block activityCURRENT

248transactions in the observed finalized block

PublicNodeOct 2, 12:06 PM UTC

Ethereum finalized-block transaction activity · Single finalized-block observation; not a network-wide activity total

Stablecoin contract supplyCURRENT

USDC 48.99B · USDT 88.3Btoken units

PublicNodeOct 2, 12:06 PM UTC

Ethereum contract supply only

Stablecoin transfer activityCURRENT

USDC 30.94K transfers · USDT 35.01K transfersUSDC 1.89B · USDT 645.12M

PublicNode Ethereum RPCOct 2, 12:00 PM UTC

Completed finalized Ethereum RPC window

Historical SEC filing facts and approved stablecoin activity provide context, but current daily ETF flows, verified exchange flows, and institutional allocation are not connected.

SEC filing evidencePARTIAL

60 recent factsselected filing cohort

SEC EDGARJun 30, 12:00 AM UTC

Historical filing observations; not daily ETF flows

Stablecoin contextCURRENT

USDC 48.99B · USDT 88.3Btoken units

PublicNodeOct 2, 12:06 PM UTC

Ethereum contract supply only; not institutional allocation

Available official weekly CFTC BTC and ETH futures open-interest evidence is mixed.

CFTC futures open interestSTALE

BTC MIXED · ETH EXPANDINGweekly change state

CFTC COTSep 22, 12:00 AM UTC

Evidence / Limitations

Evidence, with limits.

Confidence reflects evidence quality, freshness, agreement, and coverage. It is not a probability of profit, price direction, or future returns.

Freshness

PARTIAL

Coverage

6 of 6 domains have usable observations

Confidence

MODERATE

Conflicting domains

Liquidity, Derivatives

Unavailable evidence

• SMART MONEY = NOT CONNECTED
• VERIFIED EXCHANGE FLOW = NOT CONNECTED
• CURRENT DAILY ETF FLOW = NOT CONNECTED
• INSTITUTIONAL ALLOCATION = NOT CONNECTED
• FUNDING = NOT CONNECTED
• LIQUIDATIONS = NOT CONNECTED
• OPTIONS IV = NOT CONNECTED
• PUT CALL = NOT CONNECTED
• EXCHANGE NATIVE OPEN INTEREST = NOT CONNECTED

Publication limitations

• This brief summarizes approved evidence at the stated cutoff.
• The assessment describes conditions and does not prescribe a position or forecast future outcomes.
• One or more expected collection windows were late, partial, or unavailable at the evidence cutoff. No later observations were substituted.