DALQEN Daily Market Brief — September 25, 2026

Executive Summary

Current market environment.

The overall cross-domain assessment is mixed. Within that broader picture, the observed market state is mixed, while venue liquidity evidence is mixed.

Major-asset movement and participation are not aligned in one direction. Supporting evidence spans Market State, Liquidity, Macro, and On-chain. Evidence disagreement remains in Market State, Liquidity, and Derivatives.

Current daily capital-flow coverage and several derivatives datasets remain unavailable. The evidence does not establish verified exchange flows, institutional allocation, or a comprehensive derivatives condition. Confidence is moderate and describes evidence quality, not future outcomes.

Major-asset movement and participation are not aligned in one direction.

Major assets / 24hCURRENT

BTC -0.87% · ETH +0.49% · SOL +3.53%price change

CoinGeckoSep 25, 2:17 PM UTC

Market breadthCURRENT

66%eligible assets above zero over 24h

CoinGeckoSep 25, 2:21 PM UTC

50 eligible assets

Realized volatilityCURRENT

BTC 32.4% · ETH 40.14% · SOL 56.06%annualized, 24-hour realized window

DALQEN derivedSep 25, 2:15 PM UTC

BTC / ETH / SOL · baseline maturity remains explicit

Global market contextCURRENT

BTC dominance: 58.19% · Global market cap: $2.87T · 24h market volume: $115.57B

CoinGeckoSep 25, 2:16 PM UTC

Coinbase BTC, ETH, and SOL venue observations currently read as mixed.

BTC venue liquidityCURRENT

0.001 bps$542,108 observed depth

Coinbase ExchangeSep 25, 2:25 PM UTC

ETH venue liquidityCURRENT

0.037 bps$331,628 observed depth

Coinbase ExchangeSep 25, 2:25 PM UTC

SOL venue liquidityCURRENT

0.835 bps$923,094 observed depth

Coinbase ExchangeSep 25, 2:25 PM UTC

Official rates, inflation, and labor evidence are shown on their source publication cadence without a policy forecast.

Fed FundsCURRENT

3.88%official rate

FREDSep 23, 12:00 AM UTC

Reference date: 2026-09-23 · Collected: 2026-09-25T00:11:08.631Z · Recorded: 2026-09-25T00:11:08.723Z · Release time / expected next release: not recorded; official business-day cadence

Treasury ratesCURRENT

2Y 4.85% · 10Y 5.11%official rates

FREDSep 23, 12:00 AM UTC

2-year Treasury: Reference date: 2026-09-23 · Collected: 2026-09-25T00:11:09.218Z · Recorded: 2026-09-25T00:11:09.274Z · Release time / expected next release: not recorded; official business-day cadence · 10-year Treasury: Reference date: 2026-09-23 · Collected: 2026-09-25T00:11:08.821Z · Recorded: 2026-09-25T00:11:08.878Z · Release time / expected next release: not recorded; official business-day cadence

CPICURRENT

334.13index (1982–84 = 100)

BLSAug 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Reference period: 2026-08-01 · Collected: 2026-09-20T21:51:58.677Z · Recorded: 2026-09-20T21:51:58.979Z · Release date: 2026-09-11T12:30:00Z · Expected next release: 2026-10-14T12:30:00Z · Latest official release

LaborCURRENT

Unemployment 4.1% · Payrolls 159.1Mofficial labor measures

BLSAug 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Unemployment: Reference period: 2026-08-01 · Collected: 2026-09-20T21:51:58.677Z · Recorded: 2026-09-20T21:51:58.979Z · Release date: 2026-09-04T12:30:00Z · Expected next release: 2026-10-02T12:30:00Z · Latest official release · Nonfarm payrolls: Reference period: 2026-08-01 · Collected: 2026-09-20T21:51:58.677Z · Recorded: 2026-09-20T21:51:58.979Z · Release date: 2026-09-04T12:30:00Z · Expected next release: 2026-10-02T12:30:00Z · Latest official release

Approved Ethereum and stablecoin observations provide network context without assigning wallet intent.

Finalized Ethereum block activityCURRENT

328transactions in the observed finalized block

PublicNodeSep 25, 2:08 PM UTC

Ethereum finalized-block transaction activity · Single finalized-block observation; not a network-wide activity total

Stablecoin contract supplyCURRENT

USDC 49.99B · USDT 88.3Btoken units

PublicNodeSep 25, 2:08 PM UTC

Ethereum contract supply only

Stablecoin transfer activityCURRENT

USDC 22.99K transfers · USDT 25.01K transfersUSDC 810.98M · USDT 480.48M

PublicNode Ethereum RPCSep 25, 2:00 PM UTC

Completed finalized Ethereum RPC window

Historical SEC filing facts and approved stablecoin activity provide context, but current daily ETF flows, verified exchange flows, and institutional allocation are not connected.

SEC filing evidencePARTIAL

60 recent factsselected filing cohort

SEC EDGARJun 30, 12:00 AM UTC

Historical filing observations; not daily ETF flows

Stablecoin contextCURRENT

USDC 49.99B · USDT 88.3Btoken units

PublicNodeSep 25, 2:08 PM UTC

Ethereum contract supply only; not institutional allocation

Available official weekly CFTC BTC and ETH futures open-interest evidence is mixed.

CFTC futures open interestSTALE

BTC MIXED · ETH MIXEDweekly change state

CFTC COTSep 15, 12:00 AM UTC

Evidence / Limitations

Evidence, with limits.

Confidence reflects evidence quality, freshness, agreement, and coverage. It is not a probability of profit, price direction, or future returns.

Freshness

PARTIAL

Coverage

6 of 6 domains have usable observations

Confidence

MODERATE

Conflicting domains

Market State, Liquidity, Derivatives

Unavailable evidence

• SMART MONEY = NOT CONNECTED
• VERIFIED EXCHANGE FLOW = NOT CONNECTED
• CURRENT DAILY ETF FLOW = NOT CONNECTED
• INSTITUTIONAL ALLOCATION = NOT CONNECTED
• FUNDING = NOT CONNECTED
• LIQUIDATIONS = NOT CONNECTED
• OPTIONS IV = NOT CONNECTED
• PUT CALL = NOT CONNECTED
• EXCHANGE NATIVE OPEN INTEREST = NOT CONNECTED

Publication limitations

• This brief summarizes approved evidence at the stated cutoff.
• The assessment describes conditions and does not prescribe a position or forecast future outcomes.